SimulationUSA

Business Process Simulation Modeling Services

Simulate the What-If

           Test-drive the Future

Business Process Simulation Modeling is used to mimic reality over time by utilizing animated and stochastic computer models, which possess the prominent characteristics of operations under study. It is the analytical tool of choice when influential factors on operational outcome are present:

Time Dependent Events: When not just what but when something happens is important such as rush hour surge in demand for services or equipment failure at a critical time.

Random Events: When it is important to capture the variation in behaviors such as the patient arrival rate at an Emergency Department (ED) by time of the day or day of the week.

Interdependent Events: When time dependent and random events combined with operational business rules have a tendency to propagate throughout a process such as experiencing long delays at an airport as a result of weather conditions elsewhere.

 

A model is a manifestation of reality in a controlled environment. A hospital model, for example, contains entities representing patients flowing through the clinical process and resources such as nurses, physicians, equipment and beds utilized in providing the healthcare services. A production model, on the other hand, contains entities representing raw materials flowing through the manufacturing processes and resources such as labor and equipment utilized in transforming the raw materials into finished goods. Simulation, therefore, is the use of a model to represent reality over time.

 

Business Process Simulation Modeling involves testing ideas by conducting what-if analysis. In each scenario, the inputs are altered and the output parameters are observed at the end of the simulation run. As most of the simulation model input data is based on probability distributions derived from observations or estimates, output parameters are also presented as probability distributions rather than single point estimate averages.

Some of the typical inputs and outputs include the following:

Inputs:

Process Flow and Business Rules

Activity Durations

Random Events

Reliability and Downtime (MTBF / MTTR)

Resource Levels and Allocations (Shifts and Work Assignment Rules)

Typical Service Time Input Distribution

 

Outputs:

Capacity and Throughput

Length of Stay (End-to-End Cycle Time) and Wait Times

Resource Utilization and Requirements

Capacity Constraints and Dynamic Bottlenecks

Cost / Benefit Analysis - Financial Impact (NPV / ROI Analysis)

Output Distribution with Probability or Risk of Exceeding Customer Upper Specification Limit

Why Simulate?

Validate Strategies and Tactics: Test-drive ideas before implementation to avoid costly mistakes, and to justify expenditure.

Capture System Dynamics: Accurately mimic random events such as patient arrival, and interdependent processes over time.

Avoid Disturbance: Experiment with alternative solutions without impacting current operations.

Accelerate Analysis: Perform numerous what-if analysis in a short period of time using fast running simulation models.

Quantify Solutions: Introduce objectivity into the analysis, and create a buy in by the stakeholders.

Enhance Communications: Share ideas with animated simulation runs.

Promote Creativity: Encourage team members to recommend improvement ideas, which can be tested using simulation models at no risk of failure.

Provide Total Solution: Avoid sub-optimization by capturing interdependent processes.

Manage Change: Plan and test intermediate phases in transitioning from As-Is to To-Be.

Reduce Risk: Expose the unknown inherent in change and mitigate the risk of jeopardizing cost, time and reputation.

An integrated approach to Business Process Improvement is taken to leverage the synergies created when LEAN, Six Sigma and Business Process Simulation Modeling are fused.

LEAN has its roots in Toyota Production System, which is a proven and world-class methodology aimed at producing the highest Quality product or service at the lowest Cost in the shortest Time by identifying and removing process waste. Application of LEAN concepts and tools such as Just-in-Time Pull System, Continuous Flow, Error Proofing, Standardized Work, Level Loading, Value Stream Mapping, Eight Wastes, 5S, 5 Whys, etc. yield a streamlined and effective future state.

Six Sigma is an extension of quality movements, which came before it such as the Total Quality Management  (TQM). The focus is on Defect elimination through Root Cause Analysis (RCA) and variation reduction. A process at a six sigma capability level will only produce 3.4 Defects Per Million Opportunity (DPMO). Six Sigma methodology is a data driven and quantitative approach, which follows a structured set of phases: Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control (DMAIC) or Define-Measure-Analyze-Design-Verify (DMADV) employed for Design for Six Sigma (DFSS).

Business Process Simulation Modeling with its predictive ability  complements LEAN and Six Sigma approaches by validating future state before implementation and impact of variation reduction on process effectiveness.

The following steps are typical in a Business Process Simulation Modeling engagement:

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